Monday, June 7, 2010

Rafa is the new No. 1. Will Federer ever get back to the top spot?


Thanks to his victory at the French Open and Roger Federer's quarterfinal defeat, Rafael Nadal is the new No. 1 player in men's tennis. He might want to get comfortable in the top spot.
As we detailed last week, Federer has a ton of points to defend this summer while any points Rafa earns through the U.S. Open will essentially be rankings profit due to last year's injury. No matter what happens at Wimbledon, Federer still won't be able to wrestle away the No. 1 ranking from Rafa. Because even if Nadal loses in the first round and Federer wins, there would be no change in the year-to-year points since the same result happened in 2009 (Nadal didn't play and Federer hoisted the trophy). The rest of the summer plays out very similarly.
Thus, there's a realistic chance that Federer may have spent his last week atop the rankings. We thought the same thing last year when Nadal ascended to No. 1, only to fall out of the perch following his injury, so it's not like this is written in stone. For the next 365 days, however, it's almost impossible to imagine a healthy Nadal slipping to No. 2. Federer has two Grand Slam wins (Wimbledon and Australian) and one Grand Slam final (U.S. Open) to defend, while Nadal has a semifinal (U.S. Open) and a quarterfinal (Australian).
Federer is one week away from tying Pete Sampras' all-time record of most weeks at No. 1.

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